There was nothing that Renato Moicano brought to the table that Islam Makhachev hadn’t seen before, and Rohit Ponniaya expected the lightweight champ to make quick work of his new opponent in the main event.
UFC 311 Main Event Recap
UFC 311 had a new matchup headlining the main event, with Renato Moicano stepping in to challenge Islam Makhachev for the lightweight championship.
Moicano was supposed to fight earlier on the card, but with Arman Tsarukyan pulling out due to a back injury, the No. 10 ranked lightweight contender jumped the line for a title shot.
With UFC odds installing Makhachev as a massive -1200 favorite, here is a breakdown of the best betting value with the UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano predictions for Saturday, January 18.
Makhachev vs Moicano Prediction and Pick
My Fight Prediction Makhachev Moneyline (-1200 at BET99)
My Best Bet Under 1.5 Rounds (+105 at BET99)
Fight Analysis
Despite being the No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world, it would have been a mistake for Islam Makhachev to completely overlook Renato Moicano.
After all, the champ was coming off a competitive win against Dustin Poirier, who almost lost to Benoit St. Denis — a fighter whom Moicano finished in his last fight. That said, MMA math is never that simple and this was a brutal matchup for the challenger.
Moicano was on a four-fight winning streak but primarily relied on his grappling to win those bouts. However, there are levels to grappling and Makhachev is on another tier — as we saw when he completely steamrolled Charles Oliveira on the mat to claim the belt in 2022.
Not only was Moicano overpowered and outclassed when this fight went to the ground, but he was also at a disadvantage standing up. The Brazilian is hittable and had been picked apart on his feet by Jalin Turner and Drew Dober. That’s a bad sign against Makhachev, who has dynamic kickboxing and crisp counter-striking.
Makhachev cruised to his fourth title defense, but it is always risky to lay this much chalk on anybody (especially in MMA when freak injuries can happen), so other betting values should be considered.
Best Bet Analysis
Moicano’s durability had held up pretty well since moving up to lightweight, but he was knocked out by Rafael Fiziev in the first round. He was also finished three times at featherweight (two knockouts and one submission), which led to his move up to 155.
Seven of Makhachev’s last eight wins have come by way of stoppage, with three of those coming inside the first round. It’s no coincidence that all three of those Round 1 finishes came against opponents on short notice (Dan Hooker, Bobby Green, and the rematch with Alexander Volkanovski).
Although Moicano did have a full camp, Makhachev’s unique style makes him a nightmare to face without preparation. On the other side, there was nothing that Moicano brought to the table that the champ hadn’t seen before. Makhachev won by early “smesh”, with the fight finishing Under 1.5 rounds.
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